Game Result Predictions
Thursday, February 21

The R1 Prediction calculates each team's final score, margin of victory (spread), and probability of winning the game.

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Dave Aaron Arena Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Southeast Missouri
(11-17, Road 5-10)
54 62 +6.0 30% 130 62 +6.0 11%
Austin Peay
(13-15, Home 9-4)
56 68 -6.0 70% Actual:
110 (-20)
68 -6.0 89%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Curb Event Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Eastern Illinois
(8-18, Road 1-13)
57 55 +24.0 4% 134 49 +36.0 0%
Belmont
(26-7, Home 11-2)
98 79 -24.0 96% Actual:
155 (21)
85 -36.0 100%

Final/1OT R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Mott Athletics Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
UC Riverside
(17-16, Road 7-8)
75 65 -6.0 70% 124 67 -11.0 98%
Cal Poly
(5-21, Home 4-8)
68 59 +6.0 30% Actual:
143 (19)
56 +11.0 2%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Titan Gym Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
UC Santa Barbara
(8-22, Road 1-13)
62 55 +9.0 22% 119 58 +2.0 33%
Cal State Fullerton
(13-16, Home 7-7)
74 64 -9.0 78% Actual:
136 (17)
60 -2.0 67%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Matadome Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Long Beach State
(9-22, Road 3-10)
45 48 +14.0 12% 110 48 +12.5 1%
Cal State Northridge
(16-15, Home 10-4)
60 62 -14.0 88% Actual:
105 (-5)
61 -12.5 99%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
CBU Events Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Grand Canyon
(7-20, Road 1-12)
50 57 +21.0 5% 135 57 +19.5 0%
California Baptist
(14-12, Home 7-5)
93 78 -21.0 95% Actual:
143 (8)
76 -19.5 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
McKenzie Arena Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Samford
(8-20, Road 3-15)
56 53 +11.0 18% 117 51 +12.5 1%
Chattanooga
(13-17, Home 7-6)
61 64 -11.0 82% Actual:
117 (0)
64 -12.5 99%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Jones Convocation Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Utah Valley
(11-16, Road 3-10)
70 79 -21.0 95% 137 73 -11.5 98%
Chicago State
(2-28, Home 2-11)
65 58 +21.0 5% Actual:
135 (-2)
62 +11.5 2%

Final/1OT R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Brooks Gymnasium Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Mercer
(25-8, Road 10-3)
83 71 -4.0 64% 138 78 -18.0 100%
East Tennessee State
(10-21, Home 8-5)
77 67 +4.0 36% Actual:
160 (22)
60 +18.0 0%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Reese Court Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Southern Utah
(8-23, Road 1-14)
64 61 +8.0 24% 130 56 +17.0 0%
Eastern Washington
(12-20, Home 3-10)
82 69 -8.0 76% Actual:
146 (16)
73 -17.0 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Stegeman Coliseum Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Arkansas
(22-15, Road 6-6)
83 66 +7.0 27% 139 67 +3.0 25%
Georgia
(18-12, Home 13-3)
93 73 -7.0 73% Actual:
176 (37)
70 -3.0 75%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
W. S. Hanner Fieldhouse Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Coastal Carolina
(15-15, Road 6-6)
76 76 -10.0 80% 142 75 -9.0 96%
Georgia Southern
(6-22, Home 3-10)
73 66 +10.0 20% Actual:
149 (7)
66 +9.0 4%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
GSU Sports Arena Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Appalachian State
(22-14, Road 6-10)
75 64 +3.0 39% 131 67 -5.5 88%
Georgia State
(17-14, Home 10-4)
85 67 -3.0 61% Actual:
160 (29)
62 +5.5 12%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
McCamish Pavilion Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Clemson
(20-13, Road 5-6)
53 63 +5.0 33% 131 65 -1.5 63%
Georgia Tech
(17-13, Home 11-3)
75 68 -5.0 67% Actual:
128 (-3)
64 +1.5 37%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Kress Events Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Oakland
(4-24, Road 1-13)
32 47 +28.0 2% 122 44 +32.5 0%
Green Bay
(21-10, Home 12-3)
72 75 -28.0 98% Actual:
104 (-18)
77 -32.5 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Stan Sheriff Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
UC Irvine
(19-11, Road 6-6)
53 59 +4.0 36% 122 58 +6.0 10%
Hawaii
(14-17, Home 7-8)
48 63 -4.0 64% Actual:
101 (-21)
64 -6.0 90%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
War Memorial Gymnasium Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Northern Arizona
(13-18, Road 5-10)
72 71 +14.0 12% 156 69 +17.0 0%
Idaho
(22-12, Home 11-2)
90 85 -14.0 88% Actual:
162 (6)
86 -17.0 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Reed Gym Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Portland State
(24-8, Road 8-5)
54 59 +1.0 46% 119 59 -0.5 58%
Idaho State
(19-11, Home 9-3)
72 60 -1.0 54% Actual:
126 (7)
58 +0.5 42%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Assembly Hall Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Iowa
(29-7, Road 7-5)
73 75 -4.0 64% 146 80 -14.5 99%
Indiana
(21-13, Home 11-4)
75 71 +4.0 36% Actual:
148 (2)
65 +14.5 1%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Pete Mathews Coliseum Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Morehead State
(22-11, Road 10-7)
57 65 -3.0 61% 127 66 -6.5 91%
Jacksonville State
(14-15, Home 6-6)
68 62 +3.0 39% Actual:
125 (-2)
59 +6.5 9%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Gersten Pavilion Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Saint Mary's College
(21-12, Road 8-6)
56 71 -5.0 67% 137 69 -3.5 79%
Loyola-Marymount
(18-15, Home 9-6)
69 66 +5.0 33% Actual:
125 (-12)
66 +3.5 21%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Pete Maravich Assembly Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Florida
(8-23, Road 1-12)
51 48 +19.0 7% 115 49 +15.0 0%
LSU
(16-13, Home 11-6)
69 67 -19.0 93% Actual:
120 (5)
64 -15.0 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
XFINITY Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Minnesota
(21-11, Road 6-6)
69 62 +10.0 20% 134 58 +17.5 0%
Maryland
(29-5, Home 15-2)
71 72 -10.0 80% Actual:
140 (6)
75 -17.5 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Crisler Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Rutgers
(22-10, Road 7-4)
76 59 +5.0 33% 123 57 +7.5 7%
Michigan
(22-12, Home 13-1)
86 64 -5.0 67% Actual:
162 (39)
64 -7.5 93%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Breslin Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Ohio State
(14-15, Road 5-6)
77 62 +13.0 14% 137 62 +10.5 3%
Michigan State
(21-12, Home 15-1)
70 75 -13.0 86% Actual:
147 (10)
73 -10.5 97%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Klotsche Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Detroit
(3-25, Road 2-14)
34 47 +22.0 5% 116 46 +22.5 0%
Milwaukee
(15-15, Home 8-6)
59 69 -22.0 95% Actual:
93 (-23)
69 -22.5 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
CFSB Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Tennessee-Martin
(21-9, Road 7-7)
73 79 -6.0 70% 152 81 -10.0 97%
Murray State
(11-17, Home 8-5)
76 73 +6.0 30% Actual:
149 (-3)
71 +10.0 3%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Carmichael Arena Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Boston College
(14-16, Road 4-6)
78 76 +8.0 24% 160 71 +18.0 0%
North Carolina
(18-15, Home 10-4)
93 84 -8.0 76% Actual:
171 (11)
89 -18.0 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Reynolds Coliseum Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Wake Forest
(10-20, Road 2-9)
46 50 +22.0 5% 122 42 +36.5 0%
North Carolina State
(28-6, Home 17-2)
80 72 -22.0 95% Actual:
126 (4)
79 -36.5 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Welsh-Ryan Arena Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Nebraska
(14-16, Road 5-9)
71 63 +7.0 27% 133 60 +11.5 2%
Northwestern
(21-15, Home 12-5)
64 70 -7.0 73% Actual:
135 (2)
71 -11.5 98%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Prather Coliseum Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Houston Baptist
(5-19, Road 2-11)
46 71 +3.0 39% 145 67 +9.0 4%
Northwestern State
(7-18, Home 5-6)
63 74 -3.0 61% Actual:
109 (-36)
76 -9.0 96%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Purcell Pavilion Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Duke
(15-15, Road 4-8)
61 58 +28.0 2% 144 55 +33.0 0%
Notre Dame
(35-4, Home 16-1)
89 86 -28.0 98% Actual:
150 (6)
88 -33.0 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
The Pavilion at Ole Miss Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Mississippi State
(33-3, Road 13-1)
80 84 -31.0 99% 137 87 -39.0 100%
Ole Miss
(9-22, Home 8-10)
66 53 +31.0 1% Actual:
146 (9)
48 +39.0 0%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Bryce Jordan Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Purdue
(19-15, Road 3-8)
61 66 -1.0 54% 131 67 -4.5 83%
Penn State
(12-18, Home 9-9)
72 65 +1.0 46% Actual:
133 (2)
62 +4.5 17%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Firestone Fieldhouse Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Pacific
(19-13, Road 9-7)
76 72 +4.0 36% 148 69 +9.0 4%
Pepperdine
(21-12, Home 9-1)
96 76 -4.0 64% Actual:
172 (24)
78 -9.0 96%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Robins Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
George Mason
(16-14, Road 6-9)
67 63 -7.0 73% 119 59 -1.5 63%
Richmond
(9-21, Home 8-7)
52 56 +7.0 27% Actual:
119 (0)
58 +1.5 37%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Alumni Gymnasium Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Quinnipiac
(26-7, Road 12-2)
66 64 -11.0 82% 117 64 -12.0 99%
Rider
(19-13, Home 8-6)
60 53 +11.0 18% Actual:
126 (9)
52 +12.0 1%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Reilly Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Rhode Island
(8-21, Road 5-10)
61 60 +5.0 33% 125 59 +5.5 11%
Saint Bonaventure
(8-22, Home 4-9)
62 65 -5.0 67% Actual:
123 (-2)
64 -5.5 89%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
War Memorial Gymnasium Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Portland
(11-17, Road 5-8)
69 76 +1.0 46% 153 75 +0.5 47%
San Francisco
(7-24, Home 2-11)
66 77 -1.0 54% Actual:
135 (-18)
76 -0.5 53%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Leavey Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Gonzaga
(29-5, Road 11-2)
74 71 -15.0 89% 127 73 -21.5 100%
Santa Clara
(13-17, Home 5-9)
61 56 +15.0 11% Actual:
135 (8)
52 +21.5 0%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Colonial Life Arena Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Kentucky
(25-8, Road 6-4)
65 69 +2.0 42% 140 67 +6.0 10%
South Carolina
(23-10, Home 11-4)
57 71 -2.0 58% Actual:
122 (-18)
73 -6.0 90%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
DakotaDome Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Denver
(18-14, Road 5-11)
58 70 +17.0 9% 157 68 +20.0 0%
South Dakota
(26-6, Home 11-0)
73 87 -17.0 91% Actual:
131 (-26)
88 -20.0 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Carrier Dome Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Pittsburgh
(11-20, Road 3-8)
63 56 +23.0 4% 135 52 +28.5 0%
Syracuse
(25-9, Home 12-4)
90 79 -23.0 96% Actual:
153 (18)
81 -28.5 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Gentry Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
SIUE
(12-16, Road 6-11)
66 66 -7.0 73% 125 64 -5.5 87%
Tennessee State
(5-25, Home 3-7)
55 59 +7.0 27% Actual:
121 (-4)
59 +5.5 13%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Hooper Eblen Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Eastern Kentucky
(0-27, Road 0-14)
57 51 +25.0 3% 127 48 +29.0 0%
Tennessee Tech
(20-11, Home 10-3)
77 76 -25.0 97% Actual:
134 (7)
77 -29.0 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Reed Arena Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Tennessee
(19-13, Road 6-4)
62 66 +8.0 24% 140 62 +15.0 1%
Texas A&M
(26-8, Home 14-3)
79 74 -8.0 76% Actual:
141 (1)
77 -15.0 99%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Fant-Ewing Coliseum Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Texas State
(12-17, Road 7-8)
62 55 -3.0 61% 107 56 -7.5 94%
ULM
(8-19, Home 4-8)
51 52 +3.0 39% Actual:
113 (6)
49 +7.5 6%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Swinney Recreation Center Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Seattle University
(3-27, Road 2-13)
66 63 +18.0 8% 144 62 +19.0 0%
UMKC
(14-15, Home 6-6)
83 81 -18.0 92% Actual:
149 (5)
81 -19.0 100%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Memorial Gymnasium Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Alabama
(14-17, Road 3-7)
84 66 -1.0 54% 131 68 -6.5 91%
Vanderbilt
(7-23, Home 5-9)
65 65 +1.0 46% Actual:
149 (18)
61 +6.5 9%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
John Paul Jones Arena Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Louisville
(32-4, Road 11-1)
71 74 -21.0 95% 127 75 -25.5 100%
Virginia
(12-19, Home 8-8)
49 53 +21.0 5% Actual:
120 (-7)
50 +25.5 0%

Final R1 Prediction ELO Prediction
Cassell Coliseum Score Spread Win Prob. Over/Under Score Spread Win Prob.
Miami (FL)
(25-9, Road 6-5)
65 68 +3.0 39% 139 71 -5.5 88%
Virginia Tech
(22-12, Home 13-5)
73 71 -3.0 61% Actual:
138 (-1)
66 +5.5 12%